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29 Apr 2008
Hi Barbara,
WHAT THE MEDIA HAVE BEEN SAYING TODAY
REGARDING THE ANTI-SMACKING REFERENDUM
” Smacking law petition fails to gather enough valid signatures ” TV3 news site
” The opponents of the “anti-smacking” law are being told to move on, as their petition calling for the repeal of the legislation change does not have enough valid signatures to force a referendum.” – NewstalkZB
” Smacking opponents told to ‘move on’ after failure ” NZ Herald
” Smacking Petition falls short ” Dominion Post
 HERE’S THE FACTS ….
How many signatures were submitted?
324,216
How many were needed to force the referendum?
Only 285.027
How many were found invalid after the thorough audit?
The government statistician ( our emphasis added ) took a sample of almost 30,000 and found an ‘invalid’ rate of about 13% (pretty good considering Norm Wither’s law and order petition had 20% invalid rate)
So that means 324,216 less 13% invalid = 282,067 – a shortfall of about 3,000?
Yes – that’s what you would expect
But they’re saying that the shortfall is 18,027; 15,000 greater than the sample would indicate
That’s what the government statistician ( our emphasis added) is saying
So how did he get the extra invalid signatures numbering 15,000?
Beats me (pardon the pun!). They have literally plucked a figure out of the air (arguing ‘margin of error’ and despite their already thorough audit), said it’s their ‘best estimate’ – and under the Act, they don’t have to be accountable for how they came to that figure.
Do we have extra time to collect the 15,000 shortfall
YES! 2 more months. As they say, “it’s not over until the….”
Have any more signatures been collected since the previous cut-off date?
Yes! Almost 20,000 (including 6,500 at the V8 races last weekend – gotta love those petrol-heads!)
So you have enough to force the Referendum?
You would think so, but based on the confusing and suspicious calculations made by the government statistician ( our emphasis added ) we need a buffer of 20,000 more signatures to be totally sure
What about the 2nd petition demanding a Commission of Enquiry to identify and tackle real child abuse and their causes
This petition is also 20,000 short but because it had less than the required number of signatures as at the first cut-off date of February 28th, the 20,000 on the 2nd petition need to be submitted by May 14 – that’s right – 2 weeks away
SO WHAT NOW?
 Thought you’d never ask!
We need to collect 20,000 signatures on BOTH petitions preferably within 2 weeks.
WE’RE TOO CLOSE TO FAIL AT THE LAST HURDLE
1. Print off the petition form containing the 2 petitions http://www.unityforliberty.net.nz/documents/CirPetition.pdf
2. Get as many signatures as you can on both petitions over the next 2 weeks
3. Sending them in to the address at the bottom of the petition form as soon as possible – but at the latest by Monday May 12. (Even forms only half filled should still be sent in as soon as)
4. PLEASE FORWARD THIS EMAIL ON AND ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO COLLECT SIGNATURES.
Thanks for your efforts.
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